RTP is the average return over millions of spins; volatility is how widely a single session scatters around it. Three model pokies with the same 96% return, played for 200 spins at NZ$1 from NZ$100, end with the same average and very different nights.
Same RTP, different spread
Two numbers, two jobs
RTP (return to player) is a long-run average: a 96% RTP game keeps 4 cents of every dollar bet, over a very large number of spins. Volatility (or variance) describes the shape of those returns: many small wins and few large ones, or the opposite.
RTP tells you what the evening costs on average. Volatility tells you what it feels like.
The experiment
We built three model pokies with identical RTP of exactly 96% and different payout structures: low volatility (frequent small wins, a top prize of 200 times the bet), medium (top prize 500x) and high (top prize 2,000x). Each of 20,000 simulated players got NZ$100 and played 200 spins at NZ$1.
| 200 spins at NZ$1 from NZ$100 | Low volatility | Medium | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average end balance | NZ$92 | NZ$93 | NZ$92 |
| Worst tenth ends below | NZ$61 | NZ$28 | NZ$7 |
| Median end balance | NZ$85 | NZ$72 | NZ$57 |
| Best tenth ends above | NZ$130 | NZ$170 | NZ$171 |
| Ended above NZ$100 | 28.1% | 30.8% | 27.9% |
| Busted before 200 spins | 0.0% | 0.9% | 7.5% |
All three average about NZ$92, the expected NZ$8 loss (200 spins × NZ$1 × 4%). The spread is what differs. On low volatility a tenth of sessions end below NZ$61; on high volatility the same tenth end below NZ$7, and 7.5% of sessions are wiped out before the 200th spin.
At the other end, the best tenth reach NZ$130 on low volatility and NZ$171 on high. Medium and high look alike at the top; they separate at the bottom.
How these numbers were made. The simulations use a model pokie, not a real game: 96% return to player, medium volatility, a fixed bet on every spin, 20,000 simulated players per case. It shows how wagering behaves; it does not tell you what a particular pokie will do.
How to use it
- Small bankroll or a bonus to clear: choose lower volatility; the median session is closer to the average.
- Chasing a big win and happy to lose the stake: high volatility is the only way to see the long tail.
- Never read the average as a promise. The median of the high-volatility case is NZ$57, about NZ$28 below the low-volatility one.
The pokie’s published RTP and volatility rating are on its information screen. Next: how big a bankroll you need.
Questions readers ask
Is high volatility “better”?
It has the same average; it only moves the money to a few rare wins. Whether that is better depends on how you value a long shot against a longer session.
Where do I find a game’s volatility?
Many studios publish a rating on the game’s info page; if it is not stated, treat it as unknown rather than assuming.