“80 chances for $1”: reading a micro-deposit offer line by line

An offer that promises 80 chances for NZ$1 sounds almost free. The terms behind it, as the operator quotes them, add a NZ$20 bonus with 60x wagering: NZ$1,200 of bets, with an expected cost of NZ$48 against NZ$20 of bonus. Here is how to price a micro-deposit offer line by line.

The offer, as quoted

The wording we are pricing is of the “80 chances to win the jackpot for just $1” kind. The operator’s own description of one such offer states a minimum deposit of $1 within seven days of registering and a $20 welcome bonus with a 60 times wagering requirement. Amounts are shown as the operator prints them; confirm the currency in the cashier, because the symbol “$” is used for more than one dollar.

Offers change often. Use this page as a worked method, not as a current quote.

Line 1: cost per chance

NZ$1 divided by 80 is NZ$0.0125 per chance. A “chance” is a spin at the casino’s fixed value; if that value is NZ$0.25, as the minimum bet is on some jackpot pokies, then 80 chances carry NZ$20 of stakes. That is the bonus: NZ$20 for NZ$1.

Line 2: the turnover

60x on NZ$20 is NZ$1,200. At NZ$0.50 per spin that is 2,400 spins; at NZ$0.25 it is 4,800.

Line 3: expected cost

Betting NZ$1,200 at 96% RTP costs 4% on average, NZ$48. You start with NZ$21 of play money, so the average player cannot finish: the balance runs out first.

Line 4: what players did

Simulating 20,000 players with NZ$0.50 bets on a model pokie, 6.8% finished the wagering with a balance. The average ending balance was NZ$11.65, pulled up by a few large wins, and the median was NZ$0. We counted the whole ending balance as withdrawable; sticky terms would remove the bonus amount and shrink the figure.

How these numbers were made. The simulations use a model pokie, not a real game: 96% return to player, medium volatility, a fixed bet on every spin, 20,000 simulated players per case. It shows how wagering behaves; it does not tell you what a particular pokie will do.

Is it worth NZ$1?

The downside is capped at the NZ$1 deposit, and that is a real point in the offer’s favour: you are not risking the NZ$48. What you are buying is a small chance of a larger balance and some entertainment. What you are not buying is NZ$20 of spendable money.

Questions to ask before you click

• Is the NZ$20 withdrawable (cashable) or removed at cash-out (sticky)?
• Is there a cap on withdrawals from the bonus?
• Which games count towards the 60x, and at what percentage?
• What is the maximum bet while the bonus is active?
• What currency is shown in the cashier?

Questions readers ask